เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

FULL MOON AND JUPITER: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look east. Jupiter and the full Moon are only a few degrees apart. The bright pair, which looks fantastic, can be seen even from brightly-lit cities.

เดือนเพ็ญ กับ ดาวพฤหัส เมื่อดวงอาทิตย์ตกเย็นนี้ ให้ออกไปนอกบ้านและมองไปยังทิศตะวันออก จะเห็นดาวพฤหัสและพระจันทร์เต็มดวง แค่ห่างกันไม่กี่องศา สองดวงนี้จะส่องสว่างบนท้องฟ้า มองแล้วจะสวยมาก สามารถมองได้แม้แต่เมืองที่มีไฟมากๆ

(แต่มองไม่ได้ถ้ามีเมฆ - อันนี้ต่อเอง) :boo:

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

New comet might blaze brighter than the full Moon
BY PETER GREGO
ASTRONOMY NOW
Posted: 25 September 2012

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halebopp_400x223
File photo of Comet Hale-Bopp which wowed observers in 1997. Image: Kazuhiro Seto.

A new comet has been discovered that is predicted to blaze incredibly brilliantly in the skies during late 2013. With a perihelion passage of less than two million kilometres from the Sun on 28 November 2013, current predictions are of an object that will dazzle the eye at up to magnitude —16. That's far brighter than the full Moon. If predictions hold true then C/2012 S1 will certainly be one of the greatest comets in human history, far outshining the memorable Comet Hale-Bopp of 1997 and very likely to outdo the long-awaited Comet Pan-STARRS (C/2011 L4) which is set to stun in March 2013.

The new comet, named C/2012 S1 (ISON) was found by the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) in Russia on 21 September when astronomers Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok captured it on CCD images taken through a 0.4-metre reflector. Its near-parabolic orbit suggests that it has arrived fresh from the Oort Cloud, a vast zone of icy objects orbiting the Sun, pristine remnants of the formation of the Solar System.

C/2012 S1 currently resides in the northwestern corner of Cancer. At magnitude +18 it is too dim to be seen visually but it will be within the reach of experienced amateur astronomers with CCD equipment in the coming months as it brightens. It is expected to reach binocular visibility by late summer 2013 and a naked eye object in early November of that year. Northern hemisphere observers are highly favoured. Following its peak brightness in late November it will remain visible without optical aid until mid-January 2014.

Comet brightness predictions sometimes exceed their performance. Amateur astronomers of a certain age may remember the Comet Kohoutek hype of 1973 – not quite the 'damp squib' it has been portrayed, since it reached naked eye visibility! Even if C/2012 S1 takes on the same light curve as Kohoutek it is certain to be spectacular, quite possibly a once-in-a-civilisation's-lifetime event.

ปีหน้าปลายปี เราจะเห็นดาวหางดวงใหม่ (ที่พึ่งถูกค้นพบ) ที่มีความสว่างมากกว่า พระจันทร์เต็มดวงเสียอีก

 

NOAA Scientists On High Alert For 2013 Solar Maximum (Video)

Tuesday, November 27, 2012 7:01




นักวิทยาศาสต์ NOAA ได้เตือนอย่างระดับสูงสุดเมื่อดวงอาทิตย์เข้าสู่ Solar maximum อีก 14 เดือนข้างหน้า นั่นอาจเกิดเหตุการณ์รุนแรงในโลก และกระทบระบบไฟฟ้า และการสื่อสาร

NOAA scientists are on high alert as the Sun enters a period of solar maximum over the next 14 months during which we will see a burst of activity that could have catastrophic effects on global power grids and communications systems.
A solar maximum is a normal period of intense or heightened solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the Sun. During a solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear and the Sun’s power output increases with a significant upsurge in the incidence and power of solar flares. One of the best known examples of a major solar flare that affected communications system was the solar storm of 1859, known as the Carrington Event, a major solar eruption that struck the Earth with such intensity that the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42° north of the equator.


Read more here: Video: NOAA scientists on high alert for 2013 solar maximum

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR8rEJgFlSY]Dr. Kaku Explains Possible Catastrophic Solar Event - YouTube[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2hOv6fcL48]ScienceCasts: A Taste of Solar Maximum - YouTube[/ame]

เมื่อถึงช่วง solar maximum, ดวงอาทิตย์จะระเบิดมากขึ้น แรงขึ้น จะมีออโรร่ามากขึ้น พายุแม่เหล็กโลกแปรปรวนมากขึ้น เป็นต้น

เค้าเตือนถึงผลที่จะเกิด เมื่อเราเข้าสู่ช่วง Solar Maximum
เค้าบอกว่า ถ้าเกิดขึ้นจริงๆ จะแรงกว่าเฮอริเคนแรงๆ ประมาณ 20 เท่า ตอนนี้เหมือนเตือนไปไม่มีคนเตรียมตัว ราวกับว่า อย่างฮอริเคน คนรู้อยู่แล้วว่าจะอันตราย แต่ก็ไม่ได้เตรียมตัวให้พร้อม แบบนั้นเป็นต้น

solar flare เปรียบเหมือนกระสุน
จุดดับ (sunspot) เปรียบเหมือนกระบอกปืน กำลังยิงมายังโลก พลาดบ้างโดนบ้าง

เค้าห่วงเรื่องไฟดับทั้งเมือง อย่างแค่พายุเฮอริเคนแซนดี้ ไฟยังดับทั้งเมือง เมืองใหญ่ด้วย คิดดูถ้าไม่มีไฟ วุ่นวายแค่ไหน

 

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 28 Nov 2012 until 30 Nov 2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 016

COMMENT: Three out of eight sunspot groups reported by Catania today have potential to produce C-class flares: Catania numbers 27, 31, and 37 (NOAA ARs 1618, 1620, and 1623, respectively). The first two of these
groups have beta-gamma-delta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and produced two M-class flares in the past 24 hours (M1.6 and M1.0 peaking at 15:57 UT and 21:26 UT yesterday).

More M-classflares will probably occur in the coming 48 hours in one or both of these active regions. A proton event is possible in case of a strong flare in any of these two sunspot groups due to their position in the western solar hemisphere. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 380 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

November 30 will be probably marked with the arrival of the interplanetary shock driven by the ICME corresponding to the partial halo CME observed on the Sun yesterday, possibly resulting in active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

 

Coronal Holes: 27 Nov 12



Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 1-2. Credit: SDO/AIA.

 

Solar flares today
Today, 1 solar flare was observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class C1.0 0 01:12:00 01:16:00 01:19:00

Solar flares yesterday
Yesterday, 6 solar flares were observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class C3.1 1623 02:46:00 02:55:00 02:57:00
Flare of class C1.1 1620 09:28:00 09:55:00 10:02:00
Flare of class C1.1 1620 11:32:00 11:38:00 12:02:00
Flare of class C4.8 1620 12:13:00 12:24:00 12:33:00
Flare of class C3.0 1620 17:38:00 17:58:00 18:06:00
Flare of class M2.2 1620 21:20:00 21:36:00 21:48:00

 

Daily Sun: 28 Nov 12



Fast growing sunspot AR1620 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

จุดดับ 1620 กำลังใหญ่ขึ้นทุกที ด้วยสนามแม่เหล็กแบบ beta-gamma-delta และคาดว่าอาจจะระเบิด ระดับ X-Class ได้

 

M2.2 Solar Flare
A slow rising solar flare around Sunspot 1620 peaked at 21:36 UTC and is still ongoing at the time of this update. I will provide updates should a Coronal Mass Ejection be associated with this solar flare.

SOLARHAM.com / Solar Cycle 24 / Spaceweather / Amateur Radio VHF Aurora Website




NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 29 Nov 2012 until 01 Dec 2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2012 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 006

COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620) produced an M2.2 flare
peaking at 21:36 UT yesterday. However, no CME or proton event was
associated with it. This active region maintains the beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and therefore has a
strong potential to produce more M-class flares.

A proton event ispossible in case of a strong eruption in Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620) due to its position in the western solar hemisphere. Catania
sunspot groups 37 and 38 (together constituting NOAA AR 1623) produced
several C-class flares in the past 24 hours and probably will produce
more of them. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s)
solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
Tomorrow we expect the arrival of the interplanetary shock driven by the
ICME corresponding to the partial halo CME observed on the Sun on
November 27, possibly resulting in active to minor storm geomagnetic
conditions.

 

Sunspot 1623 (Wednesday) - SDO