เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

October 23, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 22.10.2012 to 23.10.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 5 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class X1.8</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">03:13:00</td> <td class="center">03:17:00</td> <td class="center">03:21:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.6</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">06:03:00</td> <td class="center">06:10:00</td> <td class="center">06:15:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.0</td> <td class="center">1593</td> <td class="center">07:40:00</td> <td class="center">08:21:00</td> <td class="center">08:56:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.3</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">13:10:00</td> <td class="center">13:15:00</td> <td class="center">13:18:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.8</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">14:57:00</td> <td class="center">15:00:00</td> <td class="center">15:05:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
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Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 5 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.4</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">00:21:00</td> <td class="center">00:26:00</td> <td class="center">00:36:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.6</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">01:37:00</td> <td class="center">01:40:00</td> <td class="center">01:42:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C6.3</td> <td class="center">1593</td> <td class="center">15:52:00</td> <td class="center">16:03:00</td> <td class="center">16:10:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M5.0</td> <td class="center">1598</td> <td class="center">18:38:00</td> <td class="center">18:51:00</td> <td class="center">19:01:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.3</td> <td class="center">1593</td> <td class="center">22:35:00</td> <td class="center">22:39:00</td> <td class="center">22:44:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

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X-Class Flare and Following CME - Update 2 Scientists Jailed
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by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

Solar activity was at High levels over the previous day with sunspot region 11598 producing an X-class flare peaking at 0317UT with an associated weak TypeII radio burst and several C class flares. A CME associated with one of the flares captured by the STEREO spacecraft. Further M flare activity from region 1598 is likely over the next few days with a chance of isolated X flares.
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CME Video - CLICK HERE ​

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Region 1598 is still growing keeping its beta-delta magnetic configuration. As it is now approaching the solar central meridian, any CME spawned by this region will be Earth-directed in the coming 6 to 7 days.​

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ดวงอาทิตย์ช่วงนี้มีปฏิกริยาระดับสูงในช่วง หลายวันที่ผ่านมาตรงบริเวณจุดดับ 11598 และก่อให้เกิดการระเบิดระดับ X-class ที่ระดับสูงสุดเวลา 3.17 UTC ด้วย radio type II แบบอ่อน และมี C-class หลายๆ ลูก

CME ถูกตรวจจับได้โดยดาวเทียม STEREO นอกจากนั้นยังจะมีระเบิดแบบ M-class จากจุดดับ 1598 อีกในไม่กี่วันข้างหน้า และโอกาสที่จะเกิด ระเบิดระดับรุนแรง X-class ได้

บริเวณจุดดับ 1598 จะเริ่มใหญ่ขึ้นและมีสนามแม่เหล็กแบบ beta-delta และจุดนี้ก็กำลังหมุนมาตรงกับศูนย์กลางของโลก และ ถ้ามีการระเบิดที่มี CME มาด้วย ก็จะเป็นการระเบิดแบบตรงๆ มายังโลก การหมุนของจุดดับนี้จะตรงมายังโลกก็อีก 6-7 วันข้างหน้า

 

Daily Sun: 25 Oct 12 <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1598 poses a threat for M- and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

MAGNETIC FROTH: Sunspot AR1598 has quieted down since unleashing an X1-class solar flare on Oct. 23rd. It might be the calm before the storm. The sunspot is still large and apparently potent, as shown in this image captured by amateur astronomer Sergio Castillo of Inglewood,California:

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Castillo used a telescope capped with a "Calcium K" filter tuned to the light of ionized calcium atoms in the sun's lower atmosphere. Calcium K filters highlight the bright magnetic froth that sometimes forms around a sunspot's dark core. AR1598 is very frothy indeed.


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Magnetic froth does not necessarily herald an explosion, but it does guarantee a photogenic sunspot. Scan the gallery for the latest images:

 

Fried Planets

Oct. 25, 2012: An international team of astronomers has caught a star in the act of devouring one of its planets. BD+48 740, a red giant they observed using the 9.2-meter Hobby-Eberly Telescope at the McDonald Observatory in Texas, appears to have the fumes of a scorched planet in its atmosphere. This is consistent with a rocky world, recently destroyed.

Could the same thing happen to Earth?
Yes indeed, says Alex Wolszczan, a member of the research team from Penn State University: "A similar fate may await the inner planets in our solar system when the sun becomes a red giant some five billion years from now."
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21RkSui1cG8"][/ame]

A new ScienceCast video looks into the case of the planet-devouring red giant BD+48 740. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21RkSui1cG8"]Play it[/ame]!

Researchers who specialize in stellar evolution have long known that the inner planets are in danger. The trouble starts in the distant future when the sun's core runs out of hydrogen fuel for nuclear fusion. To keep the fires burning, the sun will begin to fuse hydrogen outside the core, in a layer closer to the stellar surface. This will turn the sun into a red giant, at least 200 times wider than it is today. Mercury, Venus, Earth and possibly even Mars could be engulfed.

The fate of Earth is not a certainty, however. Some researchers believe that Earth's orbit might spiral outward, keeping the planet at a safe distance from the approaching inferno. This could happen if solar winds carry away a significant fraction of the sun's mass in the years leading up to the red giant phase.

On the other hand, the sun might expand so quickly that our planet has no chance to escape. Earth would get caught in the sun's rapidly advancing atmosphere and spiral inward to oblivion.

Observations of red giant BD+48 740 lend credence to the second possibility.

A spectroscopic analysis of light from BD+48 740 reveals lithium fumes in the star's atmosphere. [more]

"Our detailed spectroscopic analysis of BD+48 740 reveals that the red giant contains an abnormally
high amount of lithium," says Monika Adamow who led the study at the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Poland.

Because lithium is easily destroyed in stars, finding lots of it in an old red giant is unexpected. The most likely source is a planet. Wolszczan explains: "It is probable that the lithium production in BD+48 740 was triggered by a mass the size of a planet that spiraled into the star and heated up while the star was digesting it."

The team found another piece of evidence, too. BD+48 740 has a gas giant planet 1.6 times bigger than Jupiter which has not yet been devoured. The big planet has a highly elliptical orbit. In fact, it is the most elliptical orbit ever found for a planet around an older star. Its orbit, which almost surely started out circular, was probably altered by some catastrophic event--like its star having an inner planet for lunch.

One day, he says, our own solar system may end up the same way. In five billion years, the fried planet could be Earth.

The original research of Adamov et al may be found in their article "BD+48 740 - Li overabundant giant star with a planet. A case of recent engulfment?"

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips| Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA​

Fried Planets - NASA Science

 

A COMET IN TROUBLE? Amateur astronomers have been keeping a close eye on Comet 168P/Hergenrother since October 1st when it suddenly brightened 500-fold, from 15th to 8th magnitude. At the time, tthe comet was making its closest approch to the sun (1.4 AU). Some observers speculated that solar heating caused the fragile comet to break apart. Last night, a group of astronomers found evidence to support this idea. "Using the Faulkes North (F65) telescope," writes Ernesto Guido et al., "we detected a fragmentation in Comet 168P."


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"Our images, taken on Oct. 26th, reveal the presence of a secondary nucleus, or fragment, about two arcseconds away from the main central condensation of comet 168P." This is probably a chunk of rocky ice emerging from the haze of gas and dust that surrounds the main nucleus, still hidden inside. Comets are notoriously fragile, so its no surprise that Comet 168P/Hergenrother is breaking apart in this way. ​

The only question is, what happens next? Will the comet spit in two, with two heads and two tails, one tracking the fragment and the other tracking the parent? Or is this the prelude to a more complete disintegration? Amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor developments while the comet remains bright enough to see through backyard telescopes. Here are the comet's coordinates. For best results, we recommend the Comet Hunter Telescope.​

 

วันที่ 26 ตุลาคม เกิดพายุสุริยะขนาดใหญ่มุมกว้าง มีทิศทางหลักออกไปทางด้านที่ไม่โดนโลกแต่โลกจะได้รับผลกระทบจากเหตุการณ์ดัง กล่าว จากโมเดลพบว่าพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกในวันที่ 29 ตุลาคม เวลา 6 UTC +/- 7 ชั่วโมง




วันที่ 27 ตุลาคม เวลา 20 UTC เกิดพายุสุริยะด้านเดียวกับโลก ซึ่งพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกในวันที่ 31 ตุลาคม


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วันที่ 28 ตุลาคม เกิดาพายุสุริยะมุมกว้าง ความสว่างสูงมีทิศทางหลักมาที่โลก คาดว่าพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกในวันที่ 31 ตค - 1 พย ผู้ ที่ทำงานด้านการแจ้งเตือนและเฝ้าระวังสถานการณ์โปรดติดตามเหตุการณ์อย่าง ใกล้ชิด update : จากการคำนวณพบว่าพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกในวันที่ 31 ตุลาคม เวลา 17 UTC +/- 7 ชั่วโมง http://truth4thai.org/sites/default/files/cmemodel2_Oct28_12.jpg


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http://www.truth4thai.org/planetaryalignment/15-31_Oct_2012