เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

คุณ Tossapornk ส่งมาให้ดู

 

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot 1302, quiet now for three days, still has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of such eruptions today. X-flare alerts: text, voice.

โอกาสที่จะเกิดการระเบิด: จุดดับ 1302 เงียบมานานเป็นเวลาสามวัน แต่ยังคงมี สนามแม่เหล็กแบบ 'beta-gamma-delta' ซึ่งซ่อนพลังงานของ X-class flare. NOAA พยากรณ์ว่า จะมีโอกาสเกิดการระเบิดขนาด X-class flare วันนี้ ในความน่าจะเป็น 30% :boo:

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="76%">SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts</td> <td valign="top" width="24%">

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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Updated at: 2011 Sep 29 2200 UTC <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#FFFFF0" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="80" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td width="40%">

FLARE​

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0-24 hr​

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24-48 hr​

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CLASS M​

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60 %​

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60 %​

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CLASS X​

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30 %​

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30 %​

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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

September 30, 2011



Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
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</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1301 </td> <td> N16 W64 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 327 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1302 </td> <td> N13 W16 </td> <td class="center"> 23 </td> <td class="center"> Fkc </td> <td class="center"> 0750 </td> <td class="center"> 18 </td> <td class="center"> 279 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma-Delta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1304 </td> <td> N13 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 307 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1305 </td> <td> N13 E16 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> Cso </td> <td class="center"> 0100 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> 247 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1306 </td> <td> N14 E34 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 229 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1307 </td> <td> N16 E65 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 11 </td> <td class="center"> 198 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for September 30, 2011 00:31 UT
H-alpha plages without spots

No H-alpha plages without spots can be currently observed on the Sun's surface

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wPaq7efw8c]Sunspot 1305 - C7.7 Solar Flare (Sept 30, 2011) - YouTube[/ame]

 

เอาแล้วพระอาทิตย์กำลังระเบิดแรง จับตาดูกันว่าจะถึง X ไหม

 

นักวิทยาศาสตร์ของ CERN สรุปว่า โลกร้อนตอนนี้เกิดจากดวงอาทิตย์ !!!!

C.E.R.N Scientific Study Concludes – Global Warming is Caused By The Sun!





By James Delingpole - telegraph.co.uk
If Michael Crichton had lived to write a follow-up to State of Fear, the plotline might well have gone like this: at a top secret, state of the art laboratory in Switzerland, scientists finally discover the true cause of “global warming”. It’s the sun, stupid. More specifically – as the Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark has long postulated – it’s the result of cosmic rays which act as a seed for cloud formation. The scientists working on the project are naturally euphoric: this is a major breakthrough which will not only overturn decades of misguided conjecture on so-called Man Made Global Warming but will spare the global economy trillions of dollars which might otherwise have been squandered on utterly pointless efforts to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, these scientists have failed to realise just how many people – alarmist scientists, huckster politicians, rent-seeking landowners like (the late Michael Crichton’s brilliant and, of course, entirely fictional creation) the absurd, pompous Sir Reginald Leeds Bt, green activists, eco-fund managers, EU technocrats, MSM environmental correspondents – stand to gain from the Man Made “Climate Change” industry. Their discovery must be suppressed at all costs. So, one by one, the scientists on the cosmic ray project find themselves being bumped off, until only one man remains and must race against time to prove, etc, etc…
Except of course in the real world the second part wouldn’t happen. No one would need to go to the trouble of bumping off those pesky scientists with their awkward, annoying facts and their proper actual research. That’s because the MSM and the scientific “community” would find it perfectly easy to suppress the story anyway, without recourse to severed brake cables or ricin-impregnated hand-washes or staged “suicides”.
This is exactly what has happened with the latest revelations from CERN over its landmark CLOUD experiment, whose significance Lawrence Solomon explains here:

The science is now all-but-settled on global warming, convincing new evidence demonstrates, but Al Gore, the IPCC and other global warming doomsayers won’t be celebrating. The new findings point to cosmic rays and the sun — not human activities — as the dominant controller of climate on Earth.
The research, published with little fanfare this week in the prestigious journal Nature, comes from über-prestigious CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, one of the world’s largest centres for scientific research involving 60 countries and 8,000 scientists at more than 600 universities and national laboratories. CERN is the organization that invented the World Wide Web, that built the multi-billion dollar Large Hadron Collider, and that has now built a pristinely clean stainless steel chamber that precisely recreated the Earth’s atmosphere.

In this chamber, 63 CERN scientists from 17 European and American institutes have done what global warming doomsayers said could never be done — demonstrate that cosmic rays promote the formation of molecules that in Earth’s atmosphere can grow and seed clouds, the cloudier and thus cooler it will be. Because the sun’s magnetic field controls how many cosmic rays reach Earth’s atmosphere (the stronger the sun’s magnetic field, the more it shields Earth from incoming cosmic rays from space), the sun determines the temperature on Earth.


C.E.R.N Scientific Study Concludes - Global Warming is Caused By The Sun! | Wake Up World
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SUNDIVING COMET: A comet is diving into the sun today. Discovered on Sept. 29th by a group of four independent comet hunters (M. Kusiak, S. Liwo, B. Zhou and Z. Xu), the icy visitor from the outer solar system is evaporating furiously as it approaches the hot star. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) is monitoring the death plunge:

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The doomed comet appears to be a member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. They get their name from 19th century German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail. Several Kreutz fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate every day. Most, measuring less than a few meters across, are too small to see, but occasionally a big fragment like this one attracts attention. [realtime images]​

 

Solar flares today

Today, 1 solar flare was observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M3.9</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">00:37:00</td> <td class="center">00:50:00</td> <td class="center">00:59:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
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Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.3</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">03:50:00</td> <td class="center">03:56:00</td> <td class="center">04:04:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C4.1</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">04:44:00</td> <td class="center">04:50:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.2</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">08:56:00</td> <td class="center">09:59:00</td> <td class="center">10:17:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">12:35:00</td> <td class="center">12:39:00</td> <td class="center">12:42:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

Solar flares today

Today, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M3.9</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">00:37:00</td> <td class="center">00:50:00</td> <td class="center">00:59:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.5</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">03:10:00</td> <td class="center">03:49:00</td> <td class="center">04:13:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.4</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">06:26:00</td> <td class="center">06:34:00</td> <td class="center">06:46:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">0</td> <td class="center">08:16:00</td> <td class="center">08:23:00</td> <td class="center">08:32:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
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Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.3</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">03:50:00</td> <td class="center">03:56:00</td> <td class="center">04:04:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C4.1</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">04:44:00</td> <td class="center">04:50:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.2</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">08:56:00</td> <td class="center">09:59:00</td> <td class="center">10:17:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">12:35:00</td> <td class="center">12:39:00</td> <td class="center">12:42:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_x3JRODA44]SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE:Another Earth Directed M3.9-Class Flare/CME @ 00:50 UT (Oct 2nd, 2011. - YouTube[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBqKTWsndWE]M3.9 Solar Flare - Sunspot 1305 - SDO (Oct 2, 2011) - YouTube[/ame]

 

การระเบิดสองครั้งติด จากจุดดับ 1302 และ 1305 อย่างต่อเนื่อง

DOUBLE ERUPTION: On October 1st around 10:17 UT, widely-spaced sunspots 1302 and 1305 erupted in quick succession, revealing a long-distance entanglement which was not obvious before. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the double blast:

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Since it was launched in 2010, SDO has observed many "entangled eruptions." Active regions far apart but linked by magnetic fields can explode one after another, with disturbances spreading around the stellar surface domino-style. Yesterday's eruption appears to be the latest example.


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The part of the eruption centered on sunspot 1305 hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth. The relatively slow-moving (500 km/s) cloud is expected to reach our planet on Oct. 4th, possibly causing geomagnetic storms when it arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

จุดดับ 1305 ได้ปะทุ CME มายังโลก และมาอย่างช้าๆ (500km/s) และคาดว่าจะมาถึงโลกวันอังคารที่ 4 ตุลาคม

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
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[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOOEaVwObgU]Alert: Massive Possible X Flares Being Censored : Large Ateroid Impact !October 2, 2011 - YouTube[/ame]

 

ระเบิดแรงอีกแล้ว

 

SECCHI Javascript Movies

[VDO]http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/cgi-bin/js_movie5.cgi?sgf+c2+10+50[/VDO]

 

Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 7 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M3.9</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">00:37:00</td> <td class="center">00:50:00</td> <td class="center">00:59:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.5</td> <td class="center">1305</td> <td class="center">03:10:00</td> <td class="center">03:49:00</td> <td class="center">04:13:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.4</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">06:26:00</td> <td class="center">06:34:00</td> <td class="center">06:46:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">0</td> <td class="center">08:16:00</td> <td class="center">08:23:00</td> <td class="center">08:32:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.6</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">15:07:00</td> <td class="center">15:11:00</td> <td class="center">15:14:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.3</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">16:50:00</td> <td class="center">16:55:00</td> <td class="center">17:00:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.3</td> <td class="center">1302</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:23:00</td> <td class="center">17:26:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

Coronal Holes: 01 Oct 11 <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Solar wind flowing from this minor coronal hole should reach Earth on ~Oct. 3rd. Credit: SDO/AIA.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

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M-Class Flares Set Off Large ​

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CME 'Earth Directed' - VIDEO​

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by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes​

Sunspot region 1305 has produced three M-class flares over the last 24 hours, both associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C-class flares and an occasional M-class flare can still be expected from active regions 1302 and 1305.
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Sunspot region 1289 is coming around the eastern limb and is most likely the source of several backside CMEs over the last few days, including the big limb CME of Oct.1 21:36UT. ​

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The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels over the next 24 hours.
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CME MOVIE - CLICK HERE​

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The CME of October 3rd is associated with the Sept.30th M-class flare and should hit the Earth's magnetic field triggering a significant geomagnetic storm.​

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